|
|
|
CLIMATE CONTROVERSIES: ARE THERE "FLAWED SCIENTISTS"? |
|
|
|
|
21 July 2010: The Economist, long-known for largely independent thought and in-depth analysis of international issues, recently posted articles on the IPCC and its many controversies (e.g., Climategate, Himalayan Glaciers; see our separate tab on Climategate).
The Economist says:
"[The IPCC scientists] have too often mistaken real doubts for scurrilous attacks, and relied on mutual reinforcement rather than open debate, on authority rather than argument. The IPCC, chaired by Rajendra Pachauri, should by its procedures and example do much to help with this. Unfortunately, it has allowed itself to become part of the problem."
The Economist's staff also notes that although the IPCC is somewhat transparent on some things, it "is woefully opaque in others." For example, The Economist writers note that the selection of nominees back in June to work on the next major Assessment Report was conducted "entirely behind closed doors." Several other concerns voiced are:
- At present, the IPCC lacks a full-time chair (Dr Pachauri continues to run a large energy-research institute in India).
- It does not have the resources needed to support its volunteer authors.
- It lacks clear standards for judging conflicts of interest and an independent ombudsman.
- Dr Pachauri has been a staunch defender of the panel as it is rather than an advocate for reform that would improve it. He is not the man to carry out the changes it badly needs.
The Economist's staff notes that "[a] form of groupthink certainly seems to have been at work in the climategate e-mails." As well, "[r]ather remarkably, neither the Russell committee or the university has asked Phil Jones, who ran the CRU, whether he actually deleted e-mails with the intention of foiling subsequent requests under the act. The university says it takes very seriously the need to improve its openness. At the same time it has appointed Dr Jones to a new position as director of research at the CRU—'definitely not a demotion'—while abolishing the role of director and integrating the unit more fully into its school of environmental sciences."
However, the last paragraph of the full article is quite important: "And then there is the science. An earlier report on climategate from the House of Commons assumed that a subsequent probe by a panel under Lord Oxburgh, a former academic and chairman of Shell, would deal with the science...."
Read more:
"Climate controversies: Flawed scientists"
"Science behind closed doors" |
|
Last Updated ( Monday, 26 July 2010 10:32 )
|
|
|
NEWS RELEASE - LEADING EXPERTS RAPIDLY ENDORSING 'CLIMATE SCIENTISTS' REGISTER' |
|
|
|
|
(The following item is posted in support of the ICSC's effort to illustrate the continued scientific debate that has long existed in the field of "climate science."
Carbon dioxide NOT causing a climate crisis, say scientists
Ottawa, Canada, June 30, 2010 – The Climate Scientists’ Register, started one month ago by International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC), has just passed its first 100 expert endorsers – see here. By allowing their names to be added to the signatory list, these scientists are endorsing the following physical science statement:
“We, the undersigned, having assessed the relevant scientific evidence, do not find convincing support for the hypothesis that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing, or will in the foreseeable future cause, dangerous global warming."
“Unlike most other public declarations about climate, The Register only includes the endorsements of individuals who have significant expertise in understanding the causes of climate change”, explains ICSC Executive Director Tom Harris. “By ensuring that the Register statement is apolitical and non-commercial, it is attracting support from scientists across the political spectrum, an important objective if public policy is to be based on the best in non-partisan science.”
“Contrary to the common assumption that only ‘outliers’ and unqualified researchers disagree with the theory of carbon dioxide-induced climate disaster, The Register demonstrates that many leading experts contest this hypothesis”, said Register endorser Dr. Tim Patterson, ICSC Chair and Professor of Earth Sciences at Carleton University (Ottawa, Canada). "Many in the Earth Sciences community in particular have trouble with the concept that today’s climate change is in any way unusual or driven by human activity. Climate has always changed, at times far faster than we are witnessing today, and it will continue to change no matter what we do.”
Fellow endorser and ICSC science advisor, Dr. Robert M. Carter, Professor at the Marine Geophysical Laboratory of James Cook University (Townsville, Australia) elaborates: "Many researchers recognize that the already weak case for dangerous man-made global warming is getting weaker still as the science matures. With the admission of Dr. Mike Hulme (Reference 1, below), a prominent climate scientist and UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) insider, that “only a few dozen experts in the specific field of detection and attribution studies”, not thousands as is commonly asserted by the IPCC and others, “reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate”, the quickly achieved 127 current endorsers to the Register should provide an incentive for media and the public to reassess popular but misguided beliefs about what scientists who study the causes of climate change are actually concluding.”
ICSC Policy Advisory Board member Climate Data Analyst John McLean of Melbourne, Australia explains that, “of the roughly 2,500 independent reviewers of the latest IPCC report, only 61 commented, and not all of them in agreement, on the critical Chapter 9 of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC. This was the chapter that attempted to attribute warming to human activity on the basis of climate models that elsewhere the IPCC report shows cannot be accurate. It is clear that the InterAcademy Council currently reviewing IPCC processes needs to include among their recommendations that the IPCC must be more honest in its claims about the magnitude of the consensus, better yet, any mention of consensus should be banned because scientific truth is not determined by the number of people supporting a notion.”
To view the list of current endorsers of The Climate Scientists’ Register or to learn more about the project, visit http://www.climatescienceinternational.org or contact:
Tom Harris, B. Eng., M. Eng. (Mech. - thermo-fluids) Executive Director International Climate Science Coalition P.O. Box 23013 Ottawa, Canada K1A 4E2 613-728-9200 Email:
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
Reference 1: see p. 10, 11 of Hulme’s April 12, 2010 paper in “Progress in Physical Geography” at http://tinyurl.com/2b3cq3r.
The International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC) is an apolitical association of independent scientists, economists and energy and policy experts who have joined together to promote better public understanding of climate science and policy worldwide. We wish to help create an environment in which a more rational, open discussion about climate issues emerge, thereby helping move the debate away from implementation of costly and ineffectual ‘climate control’ measures. |
|
Last Updated ( Thursday, 22 July 2010 10:18 )
|
|
CLOUDS DOMINATE CO2 AS A CLIMATE DRIVER |
|
|
|
|
27 Feb 2010: In our last article (below), we provided highlights of an initial review of data by Dr Row W. Spencer, of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. After being asked about the influence on cosmic rays, wh
ich we can't see, Roy spent a few hours looking over some of the CERES data he had in hand and found the results "intriguing."
In a more recent post, Roy states that he had found "evidence consistent with natural cloud variations being the dominant source of climate variability since 2000.
"The following graph shows the variations in the Earth’s global-average radiative energy balance as measured by the CERES instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite. These are variations in the imbalance between absorbed sunlight and emitted infrared radiation, the most fundamental quantity associated with global warming or global cooling. Also show (in red) are theoretically calculated changes in radiative forcing from increasing carbon dioxide as measured at Mauna Loa."

There is uncertainty in the absolute accuracy of the CERES measurements, just as there are questions about the degree of sensitivity of Earth's climate system, such as the Spencer, et al., 2007 GRL paper, and Lindzen & Choi’s 2009 paper. Spencer discusses this in his full post.
In the end, Roy says: "Any way you look at it, the evidence for internally-forced climate change is pretty clear. Based upon this satellite evidence alone, I do not see how the IPCC can continue to ignore internally-forced variations in the climate system. The evidence for its existence is there for all to see, and in my opinion, the IPCC’s lack of diagnostic skill in this matter verges on scientific malpractice." |
|
Last Updated ( Thursday, 25 February 2010 19:24 )
|
|
|
HOW WARM was JANUARY 2010? AND WHY? |
|
|
|
|
28 Feb 2010: There have been many posts across the "blogosphere" about global January temperatures, and for good reason. In the words of Dr. Roy W Spencer: "The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly soared to +0.72 deg. C in January, 2010. This is the warmest January in the 32-year satellite-based data record." That would seem to be saying something. But what precisely? Is it a short-term fluctuation or oscillation, or a harbinger of future dramatic warming in line with IPCC pronouncements?
Temperatures in the tropics were indeed up as El Nino conditions persisted, approaching those seen during the 1997-98 El Nino. The Northern and Southern Hemispheres (NH & SH) were also well above normal, and this seems strange given the very cold conditions that were experienced that same month by so many people around the world.
Since 2002, NOAA's Aqua satellite has produced AMSR-E sea surface temperatures (SSTs) -- so a much shorter period of record that the land surface temps (since 1979, or 32 years). These data also indicate a surprisingly warm January 2010 (though mid-2009 saw a similar peak).
Some initial thoughts cover a lot of ground, including the possibilities that:
- Atmospheric general circulation may have been "unusually land-locked," such that cold air masses intensified over NH land masses, and preventing movement of those same air masses which might have cooled the ocean surface.
- The amount of heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere, primarily in the tropics, always follows a quasi-monthly oscillating "pattern." This is why a monthly up-tick in tropospheric temperatures is usually followed by a down-tick the next month, and vice-versa.
- Warm El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean may be influencing, directly and indirectly (e.g., via "teleconnections"), the conditions in the Lower Troposphere and SSTs as well.
In the end, the folks who monitor and process these satellite data (including Dr Spencer at UAH) are stepping up to plate. They have started several activities that should help with data collection, processing and analysis.
- Develop "limb corrections" for the Aqua AMSU instrument. This will allow creation of global grids from the data (as opposed to the existing grids which are known to have a spurious warming over land areas from orbital decay and a changing local observation time).
- The analysis may be extended to specifically retrieve near-surface temperatures over land.
One outcome of the latter effort could be comparison between AMSU surface and near-surface channels that may may lead to new observations about the urban heat island (UHI) effect.
Following is a plot of LT temperatures for January 2010 (h/t Roy Spencer). For a comparison plot for April 1998, follow this link.

In a few days time, we should see what the MSU data indicate for February, which has been rather cold and frequently setting records or reaching near all time records for snowfall. Bets on February anyone? Warmer? Colder?
Read more (following are posts by Dr. Roy W Spencer):
|
|
IS THERE GEOMAGNETIC FORCING OF CLOUD COVER? |
|
|
|
|
26 Feb 2010: Much debate exists about if, in reality, the Earth's cloud cover is impacted by cosmic rays, to what extent, and how that may -- in turn -- impact the Earth's climate. Following are highlights of a post by Dr. Roy W. Spencer on the subject of "Geomagnetic Forcing of Earth's Cloud Cover During 2000-2008." Roy had been working with 9 years of global reflected sunlight data from the CERES instrument flying on NASA’s Terra satellite, he decided to take a deeper look at some data, ... and found results that were "at least a little intriguing." Roy's work took but a few hours and opened his mind to new possibilities...
________________
The following plots show detrended time series of monthly running 5-month averages of (top) CERES reflected shortwave deviations from the average seasonal cycle, and (bottom) monthly running geomagnetic Ap index values from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. As I understand it, the Ap index is believed to be related to the level of cosmic ray activity reaching the Earth. [He addresse
s the reason for detrending in his full article.)
Note that there is some similarity between the two plots. ...[A scatterplot of the data produces an average linear relationship of about 0.05 [Watts] per sq. meter increase in reflected sunlight per 1 unit decrease in Ap index.] This is at least qualitatively consistent with a decrease in solar activity corresponding to an increase in cloud cover.
At face value, ... the geomagnetic modulation of cloudiness has about 10 times the effect on the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth as does the solar cycle’s direct modulation of the sun’s output. It also rivals the level of forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but with way more variability from year to year and decade to decade. (Can anyone say, “natural climate variability”?)
Read more:
Dr Spencer's full article
(We will also soon provide a link on a subsequent article in which Roy presents a discussion and data plots that suggest clouds, not CO2, are dominating as a climate driver since 2000.) |
|
Last Updated ( Friday, 26 February 2010 00:29 )
|
|
|
|
|
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 Next > End >>
|
|
Page 1 of 5 |
|